Today's Big Question

🚨 The Big Question: Shutdown or Jobs Report?

By this time next week, we’ll either be a few days into a government shutdown or reacting to the monthly jobs report. Both scenarios matter because they directly impact mortgage rates.

The jobs report is one of the most important pieces of economic data each month. Lately, the labor market — not inflation — has been the primary driver of interest rate trends. Strong jobs data tends to push rates up. Weak jobs data can bring them down.

⚠️ But if the government shuts down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) won’t release the report on schedule. That means markets will be left guessing, relying on smaller data points like Wednesday’s ADP employment report. And when markets are guessing? Volatility follows.

📊 This Week in Review

While we wait for next week’s fireworks, here’s what happened in housing and lending over the past few days:

• Mortgage Rates: Average 30-year fixed stayed in a tight range, right near last Friday’s levels.
• Economic Data: Thursday’s reports came in strong, nudging rates slightly higher. Friday’s inflation numbers matched forecasts, which kept things steady.
• Home Sales: New home sales surged — but that series is volatile. Existing home sales (the bigger driver) remain near long-term lows.
• Refinance Activity: Applications hit another long-term high, thanks in part to last week’s rate dip.

Translation: Nothing dramatic, but the stage is set for movement soon.

🏡 What It Means for You

If You’re Buying:

• 🟢 Steady rates = breathing room. But one headline could change affordability overnight.
• 🟢 More inventory on the market means more choices — and more leverage in negotiations.
• 🟢 Best move: Get fully underwritten pre-approved now, so you’re ready to act if a window opens.

If You’re Selling:

• 🟢 Pricing strategically matters more than ever. Buyers have options, and homes are taking longer to sell.
• 🟢 Highlight what makes your property unique. Small touches — staging, pre-inspections, or offering a rate buydown credit — can make a big difference.

If You’re a Homeowner Considering a Refi:

• 🟢 Even small rate shifts can create real savings. With refinances already at multi-year highs, it’s worth running the numbers.
• 🟢 Don’t assume “steady” will last. Acting now could lock in today’s advantage before volatility hits.

📌 How to Prepare for Next Week

Think of this as your short checklist:

1. Watch Wednesday. That’s when the shutdown deadline hits and the ADP jobs data drops. Markets could react quickly.
2. Run the math now. Even a 0.125% change in rates can shift buying power by thousands over the life of a loan.
3. Use the tools available. Credits, buydowns, and float-down options can protect you against sudden swings.

✅ The Bottom Line

We’re in a “quiet before the storm” moment. Rates have been steady, but the combination of a potential government shutdown and the all-important jobs report could spark volatility.

The good news? Whether you’re buying, selling, or refinancing, you don’t have to navigate this uncertainty alone.

📩 Reply to this email (or call/text me directly), and I’ll create a personalized scenario breakdown for you — including payment options, rate strategies, and neighborhood-level insights. I’ll have it back to you within 24 hours so you can make the smartest move possible.