Start of October Updates

📰 Small Victory for Rates as Markets Wait for Data

After the Fed’s rate cut, many assumed mortgage rates would fall right away. But contrary to the headlines, rates actually moved sharply higher on Fed Day and the day after.

Since then, they’ve leveled off — holding steady in a tight, sideways range and even edging toward the lowest levels in that range by the end of this week.

That quiet improvement makes sense when you look at what’s happening in the bond market — the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to follow, moved consistently lower through the week, especially on Monday and Wednesday.

📉 Wednesday’s gains were fueled by a surprisingly weak ADP Employment Report, which showed private sector jobs declining by 32,000 in September. ADP even revised August’s numbers from +54,000 to -3,000.

That’s a big deal because the ADP report often tries to predict what we’ll see in the official government jobs report — normally released two days later.

Except this time, the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report didn’t arrive.

With the government shutdown delaying key data, the markets are flying a bit blind right now. If the BLS report ends up showing similar weakness, we could see mortgage rates drift even lower. But for now, we’ll take the small victory: rates ended the week slightly lower, keeping us in striking distance of a potential break lower.

🏡 Why October Might Be the Best Time to Buy a Home in 2025

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines — waiting for that “right moment” to jump in — this could be it.

According to Realtor.com, October 2025 is projected to offer the most buyer-friendly conditions of the entire year.

Here’s what they said:

So, what does that mean in practical terms?

It means you can expect:
✅ More homes to choose from — inventory is up nationally and locally.
✅ Less competition — many buyers have paused or assumed rates were still rising.
✅ More time to browse — homes are staying on the market longer.
✅ Better pricing and negotiability — sellers are more open to credits, repairs, and rate buydowns.

In short: this fall gives you options — something we haven’t been able to say for a long time.

📅 Timing Matters (Especially Locally)

Every market moves on its own clock. Realtor.com notes that nationally, the “Best Week” to buy runs October 12–18, but the local sweet spot can vary depending on where you live.

Here in the Pacific Northwest, especially across Oregon markets like Portland, Salem, and Corvallis, we’re already seeing the shift:

• Inventory is up double digits year-over-year.
• Sellers are showing flexibility — offering credits or covering closing costs.
• Homes that would’ve had three offers in spring are now negotiating.

And according to Realtor.com, those trends are expected to peak through October before seasonal slowdowns return heading into the holidays.

So, if you’ve been waiting for the right blend of price, selection, and leverage, that moment might be right now.

💬 What the Experts Are Saying

You don’t have to take my word for it — leading economists are all pointing to the same window of opportunity:

📈 Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR:

🏘️ Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin:

💡 NerdWallet adds:

In other words: the professionals are seeing what we’re seeing — a market that’s quietly shifting toward the buyer’s side of the table.

🧭 How to Get Ready for This “Golden Window”

If you’re even thinking about buying this year, there are a few smart moves to make right now so you’re ready when opportunity knocks:

1. Get pre-approved early.
   Rates are stable now, but they can move quickly. Having your pre-approval in place means you can act fast when the right home pops up.
2. Work with a trusted local agent.
   Every market is different — your agent can help you pinpoint your area’s “best week” and spot deals others might miss.
3. Ask about creative financing options.
   Rate buydowns, closing cost credits, or hybrid ARM programs can stretch your buying power while rates remain range-bound.
4. Stay focused on your payment, not the headline rate.
   With home prices leveling and credits available, your monthly cost could be more manageable than you think.

🏁 Bottom Line

Rates are calm for now, but the next few weeks could bring shifts depending on economic data and the outcome of the government shutdown. Meanwhile, buyers finally have leverage, choices, and time — all at once.

If you’re serious about buying this fall, October could be your best shot in years to find the right home at the right terms.

Let’s make sure you’re ready to take advantage of it.

📲 Reply to this email or call/text me at (619) 701-5291, and I’ll walk you through a personalized plan — including rate strategy, buying power, and what homes in your area are negotiating right now.